Yesterday I talked about how the current state of the NFL is pass first. So where does that leave QB's? Assuming you're in a standard league, one where you're not starting 2 qb's or anything outside of the norm QB's are deep this year. There are about 6 guys this year that stand out. You have Brees, Manning, Brady, Rodgers and Romo. Right behind those 4 you have Shaub and Rivers. After that the cliff drops hard and fast.
After the top 6 guys you are looking at a bunch of guys that will likely rank anywhere from 7-15. This is an obvious statement but the point behind it is that this year there are a handful of guys that are not elite and any one of them should finish within a few points a game of each other.
What does this mean for your draft? If you're picking in the first four rounds you will have to decide where you want your value. I am heavy on WR's this year in the first four rounds because I think the drop off in value from the top 15 WR's to the next 15 WR's are very steep. In a scenario where you're picking at 25 and Brady or Romo are still there, look at the receivers available and decide if you can wait on QB.
I like the QB by match-up strategy this year. If Greg Jennings, Roddy White, Steve Smith or one of the top end #2 guys with potential #1 upside are available at 25 I'm going to wait till late rounds and grab 2 QB's. Guys like Kolb, McNabb, Favre and Roethlisberger are all going in rounds 8-10. Flacco is going in the 7th and guys like Henne and Campbell are going late as well. The value at RB and especially WR in the 3rd and 4th round are too high for me to spend it on a QB.
QB by committee is a viable option this year. Take Big Ben and McNabb in rounds 9 and 10 or Flacco and Kolb in rounds 7 and 9 and play the match-ups. Ben R is obviously not a #1 QB this year because of his suspension but from weeks 4+ he very may well be a top 10 guy for you that you can grab in the 10th round.
No comments:
Post a Comment