Thursday, December 4, 2008

Week 14 fantasy football match-up analysis!

I'm back from Thanksgiving and back to the useless analysis! I hope everybody's Thanksgiving was awesome.

Oakland at San Diego:

Week 14 starts with a doozy! Oakland is bad, very very bad! Ironically they are not too bad on the passing side of the ball. Oakland is allowing just 192 yards per game in the air but have yielded 12 TDs thus far.

San Diego has struggled and LT has not looked to form. LT should have a decent game against an Oakland team that allows 159 yards per game on the ground and has yielded 17 rushing TDs. LT will likely make your lineup but he is not the LT of last year. Philip Rivers has been hit or miss this year as usual but should probably be in your lineup against Oakland. Gates is a must start as well.

On the Oakland side of the ball, as usual, you aren't excited about starting anybody from the Raiders team. McFadden is nothing more than a #3 this week despite the fact that Denver is allowing 144 yards on the ground per game and have allowed 17 rushing TDs. Justin Fargas has been getting the bulk of the load and will continue to be the main back in Oakland.

Jacksonville at Chicago:

Jacksonville got handled by Houston last week and will have another tough game this week against an angry Bears team. Chicago got walloped last week by the Vikings and will try to show that they are better than putrid. Chicago is allowing just 89 yards on the ground per game but have allowed 13 rushing TDs thus far. MJD is a good start this week as Jacksonville will probably want to establish the run game against a Chicago team that runs the ball effectively. David Garrard and Matt Jones should have a decent game this week against the Bears defense that is allowing 241 yards per game and have allowed 14 passing TDs this year.

Kyle Orton would have had a decent fantasy week last week if not for the 3 interceptions and should have a reasonable game against a Jacksonville team that allows 205 yards per game in the air and have allowed 19 passing TDs. Devon Hester found the endzone last week and is a reasonable start this week. Brandon Lloyd, the flavor of the week a month ago isn't worth starting at this point until he proves he is healthy and a part of the offense. Greg Olsen is a good start this week. On the rushing side Matt Forte is a must start at this point regardless of match-up but at 248 attempts thus far may experience some slow down in the back side of the year. Jacksonville is allowing 115 yards per game on the ground and have yielded 11 rushing TDs.

Minnesota at Detroit:

It looks like Minnesota's defense line may keep their backbone players this week since the NFLPA filed a suit to block the suspension of the 5 players in the StarCaps diuretic suspension. Keep an eye on this but it really shouldn't effect your decisions for this week unless you're very shallow at running back.

Minnesota is allowing a stingy 73.1 yards per game on the ground with 9 TDs allowed. This is, in large part, due to the incredible play of Kevin and Pat Williams of the Vikings who are both facing suspension. If they are suspended for 4 games consider the Vikings a mediocre run defense. Kevin Smith could be a deep start but until further notice the only person you're starting with any confidence is Calvin Johnson.

Detroit is bad, you are starting AP, Berrian and maybe Shiancoe if you're struggling at Tight end.

Cleveland at Tennessee:

In non-keeper leagues Braylon Edwards should not be in your lineup or bench! He is officially dropable. I am officially labeling Edwards as the biggest bust of the year. Even more of a bust than his QB Derek Anderson, who is out the rest of the season along with Brady Quinn. There is literally nobody that I would want to own on the Browns in non-keeper leagues. Kellen Winslow has been ruled out for week 14 so be sure to pull him from your lineup if you haven't already.

On the Tennessee side of the ball you're going to start Chris Johnson and LenDale White. White, who had a couple rough games the last few weeks came out gang busters last week and put up great numbers again, in large part to his nose for the end zone. Cleveland is allowing 141 yards per game on the ground and have allowed 11 rushing scores. I wouldn't be surprised to see White and Johnson pass the century marker this week in yards.

Cincinnati at Indianapolis:

Too bad Lewis doesn't like using a consistent running back because the Colts can be run on. They have allowed 134 yards per game and have allowed 15 rushing TDs. Unfortunately none of the Bengals are good starts since you don't know who will be the man. In the air Housh is the only person that you would start from the Bengals and even he isn't a great option against a stout Colts pass defense. The Colts are allowing just 199 yards per game in the air and have only allowed 4 passing TDs. Despite the tough pass defense Housh still gets 5-7 receptions a week and if one of those are for a score he will have a nice game.

The Colts came out with another crazy win last week in which Manning did very little and the Colts struggled the whole game. What they need is to play the Bengals. The Bengals are allowing 225 yards per game in the air and 132 yards per game on the ground with 18 and 14 TDs allowed respectively. Look for Wayne, Gonzalez,Clark and Manning to be good starts this week. Joseph Addai put up another putrid game after finally showing a flash of what he used to be. At this point Addai is a, "start at your own risk" running back. His upside probably deserves a spot in your lineup but if you have other solid options I would consider him a risky start.

Atlanta at New Orleans:

The Saints lost a tough one last week by a field goal to Tampa Bay. Brees threw two tough interceptions in the last couple minutes to let the Buck's take the game. Deuce McAllister is probably out for the rest of the year with a suspension but keep your eye on the situation because the NFLPA has filed a suit to delay the suspension. Even if Deuce plays he has minimal value. Reggie Bush will play this week and always has the opportunity to blow up but don't expect great things against a Falcons team that is allowing 116 yards per game on the ground and 14 TDs on the year. In the air Brees is a must start, as usual. Atlanta is allowing 222 yards per game in the air and have allowed 14 TDs to date. Colston has shown he's part of the offense again and if he finds the end zone he will start putting up phenomenal numbers. Lance Moore is another receiver that you should seriously consider putting in your lineup. He has consistently put numbers up even with Colston back in the lineup.

Matt Ryan had another successful game last week and he is close to a must start at this point. New Orleans is a bad pass defense that allows 224 yards per game and have yielded 19 TDs through the air. Matt Ryan and Roddy White should be in your lineup until they prove otherwise and you should expect good things from them. On the ground Michael Turner will be in your lineup. New Orleans allows 114 yards on the ground per game and have yielded just 8 rushing TDs. Turner may not be top 5 this week but he's top 10 and will need to be in your lineup.

Philadelphia at New York Giants:

Welcome back Brian Westbrook. Westbrook, in a game that some trainers were quoted saying he wouldn't make it out of the first quarter, went off for 100+ yards and 4 scores. He will have a tough match-up this week against a tougher rush defense, even though Arizona is no slouch on the ground. The Giants are allowing just 85 yards per game and have only given up 7 rushing TDs. In the air the giants are allowing 194 yards per game and have allowed 13 passing TDs. McNabb had a monster game last week but will likely struggle this week against a Giants team that has 16 interceptions and 36 sacks to date. DeSean Jackson and Kevin Kurtis are #3 starters this week.

Brandon Jacobs ran well against a stacked Washington line last week and should have a decent game this week as well. Philadelphia is allowing just 94 yards per game on the ground but have only allowed 6 rushing TDs. Plaxico Buress is out and this means that Toomer and Steve Smith are reasonable starts against a Philly team that is allowing 214 yards per game and have yielded 18 TDs in the air. Manning is a good start and generally shows up for divisional games. Kevin Boss could be a deeper tight end but he has been hot or cold this year.

Kansas City at Denver:

Denver is coming off of a big win at the Jets where Cutler threw for 357 yards and he should continue his strong play this week and must be in your lineups. Peyton Hillis the running back that you want to start from Denver and would be a decent play against a KC rush defense that Allows 164 yards per game on the ground and have yielded 20 TDs. Tony Scheffler and Marshall are must starts. Despite Marshall's quiet games he still has too much upside to not be in your lineup.

On the KC side of the ball Larry XXXXXXX (those of you that follow my blog know that I won't type his last name because of my hatred of him) got two scores last week and will probably have a good game this week against a bad Denver defense. Denver allows 159 yards per game on the ground and have allowed 17 TDs. As much as it pains me Larry probably needs to be in your lineup. Thigpen, Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez must be in your lineup. Denver is allowing 236 yards per game in the air and have allowed 15 TDs in the air.

Miami at Buffalo:

A mediocre game played by two mediocre teams.

Buffalo is allowing 205 yards per game in the air while allowing 12 TDs to date. Chad Pennington had a weak game last week and will try to get back on track. Ginn is a deep #3 or #4 receiver this week. Davone Bess should be picked up in all leagues in the absence of Greg Camarillo but is a risky start at the moment. Ronnie Brown is decent but not great start this week against a Bills team that gives up 110 yards per game on the ground and have yielded 13 TDs thus far. Now that teams have tape on the "wildcat" formation Brown has slowed down to human like numbers but is still a pretty good play.

Trent Edwards is questionable with a groin injury for Sunday so keep your eye on this. If Lossman has to go I don't expect Brown's value to change but I do downgrade Lee Evans, the only person on the Bills receiving core that you want to start on a normal basis. Miami is allowing 233 yards per game in the air and have allowed 15 passing TDs to date. On the ground Lynch should probably be in your lineup but his lack of nose for the end zone is holding him back from being a top 5 running back.

New York Jets at San Francisco:

The Jets lost a bad game last week to Denver and will look to get back on track against a bad 49'ers team. Thomas Jones has entered elite status in large part to his nose for the end zone and should be in your lineup every week despite match-up. Especially this week Jones needs to be in your lineup. The Jets' offensive line have only allowed 23 sacks this year and this is giving Thomas Jones big lanes to run through. Jones is averaging almost 4.7 yards per carry and should dominate this week against a 49'ers team that allows 108 yards per game and have yielded 10 rushing TDs. Favre, Coles, Cotchery and Keller should be good plays this week against a bad 49'ers pass defense that allows 240 yards per game and have given up 18 TDs to date.

On the 49'ers side of the ball nobody are great starts but Isaac Bruce and Shaun Hill will be serviceable. The Jets have a bad pass defense that has allowed 249 yards per game and have yielded 17 TDs through the air. On the ground the Jets are stout and Frank Gore should not have a big game. The Jets rank 4th overall in rush defense and are allowing just 82.1 yards per game and have only yielded 8 rushing TDs.

New England at Seattle:

Matt Cassel and friends came down to earth last week but should begin their floating again this week. Seattle is allowing a league worst 265 yards per game in the air and have yielded 19 passing TDs to date. Welker is questionable for Sunday after a monster hit by Ryan Clark of the Steeler's. If he plays he should be in your lineup and obviously Randy Moss should make your lineup as well. Matt Cassel is a good start this week.

On the Seattle side of the ball nobody is a good start. Julius Jones has proven why he's not a viable fantasy option by not getting yards or TDs. A lot of this is due to the Seahawks' awful team but still nobody has value except John Carlson.

St. Louis at Arizona:

Kurt Warner is having an MVP year and is an absolute must start every week. Especially this week though. St. Louis is a bad team that has allowed 220 yards per game in the air and have yielded 16 passing TDs. Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are must starts and could easily be the #1 and #2 receivers in all of fantasy football this week. Steve Breaston should be in the mix this week as well and is a worthwhile start in a deeper format. Tim Hightower, after a couple quiet weeks, should be in your lineup this week. St. Louis allows 162 yards per game on the ground and have yielded 21 rushing TDs.

On the Rams side of the ball there are no for sure starts this week. Steven Jackson should be in your lineup but don't expect great stats. Arizona is allowing 98 yards per game on the ground and have yielded 10 TDs on the ground. Donnie Avery is not a safe start and neither is Holt at this point. Bulger may or may not play at this point but he shouldn't be in your lineup either way. He is on your bench in keeper leagues or dropped if not.

Dallas at Pittsburgh:

Dallas' elite offense will go against the most elite defense in the league. Pittsburgh is allowing just 71 yards per game on the ground and 5 TDs total. In the air they are allowing just 167 yards per game and 10 TDs in the air. Terrell Owens had a nice game on Thanksgiving and will look to continue that but it will be tough. Pittsburgh has 13 interceptions and 42 sacks. Tony Romo and Jason Witten are my only two Cowboys that I am starting without thinking. The physical play of the Steelers should prove challenging for the Cowboys. Ultimately the Cowboys' offense is high octane and have the ability to put up huge numbers against any defense in the league.

Ben Roethlisberger slipped during practice and tweaked his knee but is not expected to be slowed down at all. Ben Roethlisberger has been 36 times and could have a long day if the Steeler's can't give him proper protection. The Cowboys have 40 sacks and could make it a long week for the Steeler's offense. It's looking like Willie Parker will play this week so he should probably be in your lineup. Heath Miller will play and has value as a tight end that may have been dropped during his health issues and weak performances.

Washington at Baltimore:

Clinton Portis, who is banged up and coming off of a bad week, will likely struggle again. The Ravens allow just 78 yards per game on the ground and have given up just 3 rushing TDs. In the air Jason Campbell will have a tough game against a Ravens team that allows just 175 yards per game in the air and have a league leading 20 takeaways for the year. Santana Moss should be in your lineup regardless of match-up because of his big play potential but none of the Redskins are "safe" starts this week, especially Portis.

The Ravens are still managing to put points on the board despite not having a consistent running back. It is unsafe to start any Ravens back but if you have to start one I'm still starting McGahee. In the air Derrick Mason has the most value but nobody on the Ravens team are phenomenal starts against a stout Washington pass defense that allows just 192 yards per game in the air and 91 on the ground.

Tampa Bay at Carolina:

Tampa Bay came out of last weeks game with a W despite the close game. Garcia and company will look to battle for a playoff spot against divisional rivals and will need a W to stay in the front of the pack. Warrick Dunn is still active and could be a good start against a Panthers team that is allowing 113 yards per game and have allowed 10 TDs. Antonio Bryant has another good game last week and should be a nice start this week with the Panthers allowing 201 yards per game and have allowed 11 passing TDs.

DeAngelo Williams went O-F-F last week but will likely hit a wall this week. While Tampa Bay have allowed 95 yards per game on the ground they have only given up 1 rushing TD all season. They are stingy in the red zone and Williams may not find a hole against a tough line. Steve Smith and Delhomme may struggle again against a Tampa Bay team that allows just 184 yards per game. On the bright side for the Panther's passing game the Bucks have allowed 16 passing TDs.

Week 14 fantasy rankings!

Running Back

1. Adrian Peterson
2. Thomas Jones
3. Steve Slaton
4. Matt Forte
5. LaDainian Tomlinson
6. Michael Turner
7. Chris Johnson
8. Larry Johnson
9. Brandon Jacobs
10. Peyton Hillis
11. Brian Westbrook
12. Marshawn Lynch
13. Joseph Addai
14. Steven Jackson
15. DeAngelo Williams
16. Frank Gore
17. Ryan Grant
18. Clinton Portis
19. Maurice Jones-Drew
20. Marion Barber
21. Ronnie Brown
22. Tim Hightower
23. LenDale White
24. Warrick Dunn
25. Justin Fargas
26. Reggie Bush
27. Willie Parker
28. Kevin Smith
29. Jamal Lewis
30. Pierre Thomas
31. Sammy Morris
32. Derrick Ward
33. Le'Ron McClain
34. Cedric Benson
35. Darren McFadden
36. Leon Washington
37. Chester Taylor
38. Ricky Williams
39. Fred Taylor
40. Mewelde Moore

Wide Receivers

1. Larry Fitzgerald
2. Anquan Boldin
3. Randy Moss
4. Greg Jennings
5. Roddy White
6. Andre Johnson
7. Calvin Johnson
8. Reggie Wayne
9. Brandon Marshall
10. Terrell Owens
11. Marques Colston
12. Dwayne Bowe
13. Lance Moore
14. Steve Smith
15. Bernard Berrian
16. Antonio Bryant
17. Lee Evans
18. Hines Ward
19. Jerricho Cotchery
20. Wes Welker
21. Eddie Royal
22. Donald Driver
23. Laveranues Coles
24. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
25. Santana Moss
26. Amani Toomer
27. Isaac Bruce
28. DeSean Jackson
29. Kevin Walter
30. Santonio Holmes
31. Marvin Harrison
32. Steve Breaston
33. Ted Ginn Jr.
34. Derrick Mason
35. Devin Hester
36. Davone Bess
37. Kevin Curtis
38. Anthony Gonzalez
39. Braylon Edwards
40. Domenik Hixon


1. Kurt Warner
2. Drew Brees
3. Peyton Manning
4. Jay Cutler
5. Aaron Rodgers
6. Matt Cassel
7. Brett Favre
8. Matt Ryan
9. Tyler Thigpen
10. Tony Romo
11. Eli Manning
12. Ben Roethlisberger
13. Chad Pennington
14. Kyle Orton
15. Philip Rivers
16. Donovan McNabb
17. Shaun Hill
18. Jeff Garcia
19. Joe Flacco
20. David Garrard

Tight Ends

1. Tony Gonzalez
2. Antonio Gates
3. Tony Scheffler
4. Dallas Clark
5. Jason Witten
6. Dustin Keller
7. Zach Miller
8. Kevin Boss
9. Owen Daniels
10. Chris Cooley
11. Greg Olsen
12. John Carlson
13. Bo Scaife
14. Jeremy Shockey
15. Donald Lee