Thursday, October 30, 2008

Week 9 Fantasy Football Matchup Analysis!

New York Jets at Buffalo:

Two teams coming down to earth try to get back on track.

The Jets pulled out a win against the Chiefs last week on a late score to Coles. Favre is at 13 TDs to 8 INTs and Coles is quietly the #12 WR in fantasy football this year. Buffalo only allows 185 yard per game and have allowed 6 TDs in the air. I expect Favre to have a nice game this week against a Bills team that only has 4 INTs this year. If you don’t punish Favre for his borderline throws he will eventually come out on top. Thomas Jones should have a reasonable game but the majority of this game will be spent in the air.

Buffalo came down to earth the last couple weeks and lost one last week to Miami. Lynch will have a tough go at it against a Jets team that is allowing just 83 yards per game but have allowed 7 TDs. Trent Edwards will look to bounce back after a tough game. The jets are allowing 230 yards per game and have allowed 8 TDs.

Detroit at Chicago:

The Battle of the backups!

Over the last 5 games Kyle Orton has thrown for 1370 yards, 10 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. He has been a veritable force to be reckoned with. He has the good fortune of going against Detroit who is allowing 251 yards per game in the air and have given up 11 TDs to just one interception. Orton should have a nice game. Matt Forte is obviously a no-brain starter this week going against a run defense that is as feeble as Kitna’s tolerance for concussions. Detroit is allowing167 yards per game on the ground and have allowed 9 TDs.

On the other side of the ball Detroit is going against a weak Chicago pass defense. Chicago is allowing 243 yards per game and have allowed 7 TDs to 10 INTs. Orlovsky is a deep starter if you’re in dire straights but don’t expect too much against a Chicago team that has 14 sacks this year. Calvin Johnson is your only safe play on Detroit’s side of the ball.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati:

The 0-8 Bengals are coming off of an old fashion beating where they managed just two field goals against a suspect Houston defense. Palmer is out again this week but is considering a start in the next few weeks. Nobody on the Cincinnati team are sure starts anymore. Housh and Johnson may be in your lineup in deeper leagues but most Bengals should be on your bench.

Jacksonville regressed a bit last week and lost to a struggling Cleveland. Garrard had 283 yards though and they shouldn’t have any trouble clawing their way past the Bengals. Cincinnati is only allowing 179 yards per game but have given up 10 TDs to just 4 interceptions. They also only have 5 sacks the entire year and Garrard should be able to pick them apart with plenty of time to sit in the pocket. MJD should have a nice game against a Bengals team that is allowing 152 yards per game and have allowed 10 TDs on the ground. MJD has only had 2 games this year with more than 30 yards, but both of those games were 100+ yard games.

Baltimore at Cleveland:

Baltimore did what they were supposed to last week and beat up on Oakland. They have a good matchup again this week against a weak Browns team. Word from Ravens camp is that Troy Smith may split time with Flacco. You probably wouldn’t start Flacco anyway but this does downgrade him considerably. Cleveland has a stout pass defense allowing just 183 yards per game and have only yielded 5 TDs the entire year. On the ground it’s a different story. They are allowing 146 yards per game and have given up 8 TDs. Look for McGahee to have a nice game.

Cleveland is hanging on by a thread. You would have to assume that Derek Anderson is on a short leash but thus far we have seen a hide or hair of Quinn. Anderson has thrown 6 TDs and 6 INTs this year and is only throwing for 164 yards per game. Going against a tough Ravens defense you really don’t want to start anybody on the Browns. Jamal Lewis and Braylon Edwards would be the only people worth mentioning.

Green Bay at Tennessee:

Tennessee is coming off of an emotional victory over the perennial patriarchs of the AFC South. Their stout defense locked down Manning and crew and the one-two punch of Johnson and White beat up a bad Indy defense. Look for much of the same against the Packers. The packers are allowing 142 yards per game and have given up 7 TDs on the ground. Look for the efficiency of Collins and the intense run game to shine. You will want to find a way to get LenDale White and Chris Johnson in your lineups. Collins is efficient but has not been a top notch fantasy QB and he is going against a good Packers pass defense that has 13 INTs and 12 sacks on the year.

On the Packers side of the ball you obviously have to start Jennings and that’s about it. Rodgers may be your best option at QB but he probably won’t have a big game against a Titans defense that has only given up 1 TD this year in the air. Ryan Grant has been getting a full load on the ground but won’t get much breathing room against a Titans defense that is only allowing 89 yards per game and have yielded 6 TDs.

Tampa Bay at Kansas City:

Tampa Bay wins the Kansas City lottery!

Tampa Bay is coming off of an offensive no-show where the Cowboys held them to three field goals. Kansas City is allowing 195 yards per game in the air and have given up 5 TDs. Don’t look for Garcia to have a huge game but I do look for Antonio Bryant to bounce back with a good game. On the ground is where KC gets beat. They are giving up a leage worst 207 yards per game on the ground and have given up a league worst 12 TDs. Graham is a great start this week, especially since Dunn is looking questionable for Sunday. Gruden said this week that they probably should not have let him play last week.

Kansas City is coming off of tough loss late in the game to the “old man lucky” Favre. Thigpen had a huge game but don’t expect that back to back. Tampa Bay is allowing 201 yards on the ground and have yielded 9 TDs. They are touchable through the air but Thigpen hasn’t showed enough consistency to be start worthy. It appears as if Larry Johnson will be sitting again this week and you can’t start Charles or Smith until KC decides who will get the rock.

Arizona at St. Louis:

St. Louis is coming off of an “almost there” loss to the Patriots. Donnie Avery seems to have arrived and Steven Jackson appears to be healing slower than they thought. Antonio Pittman filled in for Jackson and had a reasonable game last week. Don’t look for Pittman to have a great week if he starts against an Arizona team that is only allowing 04 yards per game and have only given up 4 TDs on the ground. In the air I look for Avery to continue his arrival. Arizona is allowing 220 yards per game and are tied with the league lead for most TDs allowed in the air at 12. Bulger could be a decent start if your guy is on bye or injured.

Arizona is going against a bad St. Louis defense on both sides of the ball. The Rams are allowing 231 yards per game in the air and have allowed 9 TDs. Kurt Warner is a must start this week as well as Fitzgerald and Boldin. Even Breaston stuck around with Boldin back last week and could be started as a #3 receiver or flex play. Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt hinted at the idea that Tim Hightower may take over the starting job. This would be a welcomed event for Hightower owners. Hightower is your starter this week against a Rams team that is allowing 161 yards per game and have yielded 10 TDs on the ground.

Houston at Minnesota:

Houston beat up on Cincinnati last week and will have their work cut out for them this week against a rested Vikings team. Andre Johnson has the opportunity to be the first player ever to get 130+ receiving yards in 5 straight games and he should have a decent chance of getting it against a Minnesota team who is tough on the rush and weak on the pass. Schaub is a must start and Kevin Walter is a reasonable start for a #3 or flex position. Slaton is not slated to have a huge game against the Vikings tough rush defense that is allowing just 70 yards per game but have given up 7 TDs.

Minnesota will try to run a lot on a Texan team that has allowed 122 yards per game and 11 TDs on the ground. AP and Chester Taylor are both good starts with Taylor in a flex type role. If you have to start anybody on the passing side of the ball it’s Berrian but don’t expect a huge game from Frerotte or Berrian.

Miami at Denver:

Chad Pennington has been potent the last few weeks. After Wildcat Brown made other teams focus on the run he was able to take advantage of the openings. In the last three weeks Pennington has passed for 893 yards, 4 TDs and 2 INTs. Look for his numbers to be good this week against a putrid Denver pass defense that is allowing 240 yards per game and a league leading 12 TDs. Ted Ginn Jr. will look to continue his arrival at NFL relevance and could have a good game. Ronnie Brown should have a nice game as well against a Denver run defense that is allowing 154 yards per game and have yielded 9 TDs on the ground.

Jay Cutler is coming off of a bye and will look to get his team back on track. Starting the year on a high they have slowed down in recent weeks. Miami’s run defense is potent and Shanahan does not commit to any one running back. These factors make none of the Bronco’s backs startable. If you have to start one it’s Michael Pittman who appears to be the red zone guy. You’re obviously starting Cutler and Marshall against a bad Miami pass defense that is allowing 235 yards per game and have given up 9 TDs. Eddie Royal is back and should be healthy and a reasonable #3 receiver this week.

Atlanta at Oakland:

Michael Turner will look to get off his recent string of poor games. In 3 of the last 4 games he has finished with less than 60 yards and no TDs. The Oakland run defense is a good candidate to help him get off his slump. The Raider’s are allowing 136 yards per game and have given up 9 TDs. In the air Matt Ryan is set for a good game against the Oakland’s 224 yards in the air and 8 TDs. Roddy White has to be in your lineup until he proves otherwise.

On the Oakland side of the ball there is little value available. McFadden, the most hyped rookie coming into the year has been next to irrelevant with turf toe being the main culprit. He has not been struggling with turf toe on both feet and even when playing Fargas gets the majority of the carries. Neither one of these backs are great options but if you’re starting one it is Fargas.

Dallas at New York Giants:

Brad Johnson has gotten the nod again despite the groans of Jerry Jones and the majority of the Cowboy fans. Brooks Bollinger has taken some 1st team snaps this week and you should expect to see him if Johnson can’t move the ball again this week. None of the cowboys are must starts this week against a tough Giants defense that is allowing just 84 yards on the ground and 190 in the air. Barber and TO will most likely be in your lineups but shouldn’t have huge games. Jason Witten broke his ribs last week and says he will try to play but keep an eye on him as it would be a risk to play Witten a game before the Cowboys bye week.

On the other side of the ball Eli Manning and Plaxico Burress are good starts. Dallas had a phenomenal defensive game last week but on the year have allowed 201 yards per game in the air and have yielded 9 TDs. On the ground Jacobs will try to beat down the Cowboys that are allowing 102 yards per game.

Philadelphia at Seattle:

Seattle went to San Francisco and “upset” the spiraling 49’ers. Despite their win last week this is not a good matchup for them. Hasselbeck and Branch are out again and Seneca Wallace will have a tough time against a Philly team that has 21 sacks and have only allowed 7 TDs and 188 yards per game in the air. Nobody on the Seattle offense are good starts this week.

On the Eagle’s side of the ball we have a week full of great matchups. The Seahawks are allowing 242 yards in the air and 121 on the ground. Westbrook is a must start along with Donovon McNabb. Eagle’s should be up in the game allowing Westbrook to follow-up his career game last week with another gem. DeSean Jackson will look to continue to get the ball with Kevin Curtis working his way back into the offense.

New England at Indianapolis:

The battle of the has-beens!

For different reasons both the Colts and the Patriots are struggling. The Colts got handled last week on Monday Night Football against a tough Titans defense. They will look to bounce back this week against a Patriots team that is allowing 117 yards on the ground and 196 in the air. They have allowed 10 TDs in the air and only 4 on the ground. Addai is probable for a return this week but doesn’t have a great matchup. Reggie Wayne and Manning are good bounce back starters this week and Marvin Harrison could find himself as a decent flex play.

Randy Moss has found his way back into relevance but he’s going against a tough Indy defense that is allowing 175 yards per game and have only allowed 2 TDs. The Colts just found out that their starting cornerback Marlin Jackson may be out for the year which would have an impact on their pass defense. With Sammy Morris out this week Green-Ellis and Kevin Faulk will look to split the load against a suspect Colts rush defense that is allowing 153 yards per game and have yielded 6 TDs.

Pittsburgh at Washington:

Pittsburgh just came off of a hard-nosed loss to the Giants and face the leading rusher in the NFL. Portis is banged up but is slated to start this week. Santana Moss has a swollen hammy but appears to be starting also. Willie Parker has practiced in full this week and is scheduled to make his return. This should be a tough game for both sides of the ball. You’re obviously starting Portis and Moss. You’ll want Hines Ward in your lineup and that’s about it. The Steelers will not punish Holmes further for his marijuana charges last week but he is still facing suspension from the league so watch his status if you own him.

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