Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Week 15 Fantasy Football Match-up Analysis!

New Orleans at Chicago:

Saints are still holding on to a sliver of hope that is thinner than the ice that Romeo Crennel is skating on. They came out of last week with a win and will look to take advantage of a bad Chicago pass defense. Chicago is allowing 234 yards per game and have given up 15 TDs. Brees should have a magnificent game and all of his targets are reasonable starts. Jeremy Shockey has put together some decent yardage in the last three games and is finding a place in the Saints' offense. Reggie Bush made his splash in the Saints' offense last week and is a decent start despite the fact that Chicago's pass defense is stout. The Bears allow just 91 yards per game but have allowed 13 rushing TDs. Pierre Thomas is a decent flex start this week since he will be the goal line guy.

The Bears will look to stay on top of a tight divisional race and will do it on the ground. New Orleans allows 113 yards per game on the ground and have given up 10 rushing TDs. Matt Forte is a must start, as if you weren't starting him anyway! Orton is back in and has been playing well. Devin Hester is obviously one of his targets and could be a good #3 or #4 receiver especially in leagues that reward punt return TDs as he's always a threat for that. New Orleans is allowing 231 yards per game in the air and have allowed 20 passing TDs on the year. Orton is a top 10 QB this week and you shouldn't feel bad about having him as your starting QB this week.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta:

Tampa Bay is still holding on to a 9-4 record despite losing a vital game on Monday night. Tampa Bay leads the wild card and will need to beat the the Falcons to avoid a tie for the wild card. Garcia went off last week and Antonio Bryant had a monster game. Atlanta is allowing 223 yards per game and have given up 16 passing TDs to date. Bryant is a must start at this point and should be in your lineup until he proves otherwise. On the ground Atlanta allows 122 yards per game and have yielded 15 TDs this year. Warrick Dunn and Cadillac Williams will be splitting carries and neither one of them are the clear #1 at this point. Both are good flex options but with the split in the back field I wouldn't be comfortable starting either one of them as one of your primary running backs.

Tampa Bay's stout rush defense was exposed last week although it was exposed by two phenomenal runners. Going into last week Tampa Bay had only allowed 1 rushing TD on the year but gave up 4 last week. I wouldn't expect to see another weak week from Tampa Bay as Monte Kiffin will likely be mad about his defenses weak showing. Michael Turner is probably your best option but I wouldn't expect him to get more than maybe one score. In the air Tampa Bay's defense has started locking down other teams of late. They are allowing just 183 yards per game but they have yielded 17 TDs to date. This makes Roddy White and Matt Ryan must starts. They should have nice games as I expect to see Tampa Bay shut down Michael Turner as much as possible.

Washington at Cincinnati:

Clinton Portis called out Jim Zorn this week on the radio and claims he's healthy. I find it difficult to believe that if he were healthy that he wouldn't have been in the game. Portis has been the work horse for the Skins and if he's healthy you have to put him in your line-up. Cincinnati is allowing 126 yards per game on the ground and have yielded 15 TDs. It's going to be your call as to whether or not you think Portis is healthy. Keep your eye on whether he practices on Thursday or Friday, this is generally a good indication as to whether or not a running back is healthy or will be the main guy on Sunday. In the air Cincinnati is allowing 222 yards per game and have allowed 21 TDs in the air. Campbell should be in your lineup and Santana Moss should have a nice game against a porous Bengals defense.

Washington is all but done with their playoff hopes after losing to Baltimore but I still expect them to be playing for a playoff spot despite the probability of it being next to nothing. That being said the Bengal's have very few starters that you're comfortable starting. Houshmandzedah is about it. He is still getting 5+ receptions a game and can be counted on for 75 yards this week.

Seattle at St. Louis:

Seattle gave New England a run for their money last week but with the loss I expect Seattle to start caving to the realization that their team has been a walking med clinic this year. That being said they are playing the Rams. Seneca Wallace put together a decent game last week and actually has some weapons now. St. Louis is allowing 225 yards per game in the air and have yielded 17 TDs to date. Seneca Wallace is a decent start if you're struggling at QB in a deeper league. Deion Branch had a huge game last week but I still think Bobby Engram is the WR you want in Seattle with both being flex plays this week. If Julius Jones was a good fantasy running back, or a good running back for that matter, you would start him this week against a Rams team that gives up 154 yards per game on the ground and have given up 22 TDs to date. But he isn't good so he should still find a spot on your bench or the waiver wire unless you're struggling mightily for a warm body!

St. Louis has little of value in fantasy football but going against Seattle makes what little they have a little higher. Seattle is allowing 119 yards per game on the ground and have given up 12 TDs for the year. Steven Jackson will probably be in your lineup but if you have other options at RB you should play them. Jackson hasn't had a 100 yard game since last year in December and does not look like himself. Donnie Avery, Holt and Bulger are all deep starts if you're struggling to find warm bodies but nobody here has must start potential.

San Francisco at Miami:

The 49'ers are trying to put together some hope for next year and Shaun Hill has actually played well. Isaac Bruce has entered the fantasy discussion again. Frank Gore ran well before injuring his ankle. Gore is questionable so keep your eye on his status if you have him and need to start him. If you have other options I would start them against a Miami team that is allowing just 96 yards per game on the ground and have given up just 8 rushing TDs. In the air Miami is allowing 221 yards per game and have given up 12 passing TDs to date. Shaun Hill is a deeper start but hasn't shown enough to put him in the "startable" QBs yet. Isaac Bruce should be used as a #3 or flex play.

Miami is in playoff contention just one year after almost going without a win. Pennington has been playing well and Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are actually becoming a decent duo. The 49'ers rush defense isn't as bad as the rest of the team allowing 104 yards per game and have given up 12 TDs to date. Ronnie Brown is obviously in your lineup and Ricky Williams could be used this week as a flex position but nothing more. In the air the 49'ers have given up 18 TDs and are allowing 231 yards per game. Pennington is a good start this week and Devone Bess and Anthony Fasano are decent starts as well.

Buffalo at New York Jets:

Buffalo has fallen off the band wagon. They started out gang busters but have struggled of late. Marshawn Lynch is still getting yards but has not been a fantasy force because he's missed the end zone in many games. The Jets allow just 84 yards per game and only allowed 8 TDs on the ground. This makes Lynch a risky start especially with the Bills' weak offensive showings. Trent Edwards is still questionable for this week but you probably wouldn't want to start him even if he's active since he'll be rusty and Buffalo hasn't been playing well. I don't like Lee Evans in general though he does have a good match-up this week against a Jets team that is allowing 251 yards per game and have given up 19 passing TDs.

Thomas Jones is now the 3rd best fantasy football backs in standard leagues and should be considered a must start. Buffalo is allowing 110 yards per game and have yielded 13 rushing TDs. Leon Washington is a flex play especially in leagues that give points for punt and kick return touchdowns. In the air Favre has put up some modestly poor games mainly due to the fact that their running game has been firing on all cylinders. Buffalo allows just 203 yards per game in the air and has only given up 13 touchdowns in the air and this makes Favre and crew risky starts at this point.

Detroit at Indianapolis:

The Colts are the tale of two teams this year. Against Houston they put up 10 points then they explode for 35 points. This is a week when all your Colts should be in your lineup. They are 9-4 and will need to win a couple more games to ensure a playoff spot. Reggie Wayne has had 3 games of his last 4 without a TD and has struggled with yards as well. Marvin Harrison has reemerged somewhat and Manning is spreading the ball around. Joseph Addai is not a must start anymore and had a poor game last week against a bad Bengals defense. This week the Colts drew the Detroit lottery ticket and play a Lions team that allows 214 yards in the air and a terrible 173 yards on the ground with 19 TDs in the air and 23 TDs on the ground. That is a statistical way of saying that every Colt of value should be in your lineup.

Detroit has 1.5 people worth mentioning and that is Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith. Kevin Smith has put together a decent year on a putrid team and is going against a bad Colts rush defense that allows 130 yards per game and have given up 15 rushing TDs.

San Diego at Kansas City:

The Chargers have been a huge disappointment this year and surprisingly their passing game is the side of the ball that you're more comfortable starting than the rock formerly known as LT. Lucky for LT and the Chargers they are playing the Chiefs that give up 162 yards per game on the ground and have yielded 21 rushing TDs. LT should be in your lineup despite a rough year. In the air Rivers had a nice game last week and will look to continue that with a strong outing against a KC team that gives up 236 yards per game and have yielded 16 passing TDs.

On the KC side of the ball Thigpen has proven that he deserves a spot in your lineup. This is especially true against the Chargers that give up 249 yards per game and have allowed 21 passing TDs. Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez are must starts. On the ground Larry J****** will be the main back but is, in now way, a safe start against a Chargers team that allows 103 yards per game but have only allowed 6 rushing TDs on the year, mainly because teams are scoring passing TDs at will.

Green Bay at Jacksonville:

Green Bay is all but done for the year and will try to end the year positively for a bounce back year next year. Aaron Rodgers has proven that he is a good QB and Greg Jennings has cemented himself as their definitive #1 receiver and a top 10 receiver for the foreseeable future. Jacksonville allows just 205 yards per game in the air but have yielded 21 passing TDs. This makes Rodgers and Jennings phenomenal starts this week with Driver as a decent #3 or flex start. Ryan Grant has started running well again and appears to be healthy. Feel comfortable starting Grant against a Jaguars team that allows 113 yards per game on the ground and have given up 11 rushing TDs.

MJD is the only person on the Jax that you want to start. Matt Jones has been suspended for three games and the Jaguars have all but mailed it in for the year. David Garrard lost one of his main targets in Matt Jones and Reggie Williams has been inconsistent at best. Green Bay's run defense is bad and allows 142 yards per game with 17 rushing TDs allowed to date. This makes the Jacksonville's passing game a weak start and puts MJD as a good start.

Tennessee at Houston:

Kerry Collins has put up some good games but can't be considered a great start with LenDale White and Chris Johnson running the show in Tennessee. Houston is allowing 127 yards per game on the ground and have allowed 17 rushing TDs. Chris Johnson is a #1 back this week and White is a #2 or flex back. In the air Justin Gage has been the only receiver worth looking at and he is too inconsistent to start this week despite a poor Houston pass defense that allows 215 yards per game and have allowed 20 TDs.

Matt Schaub missed 4 games and came back and didn't look rusty at all. He threw for 400 + yards and 2 TDs last week. Andre Johnson and Schaub are good starts this week despite going against a stout Tennesse defense that allows just 181 yards per game in the air and have given up just 8 passing TDs. Steve Slaton has a tough match-up against a Tennessee team that allows just 92 yards per game but fortunately for Slaton you can score TDs against the Titans and the Titans have allowed 12 rushing TDs on the year.

Minnesota at Arizona:

Adrian Peterson leads the league in rushing yards but hasn't been the TD machine that owners had hoped he would be. This week the Vikings get Arizona who gives up passing touch downs like they're going out of style but has only allowed a stingy 10 rushing TDs. Adrian Peterson is obviously a must start but the Vikings may end up throwing a bit this week. Arizona has a league worst 27 passing touch downs allowed and are giving up 216 yards per game. Tarvaris Jackson is a DEEP start if you're struggling at QB. Berrian is a good start and Shianco proved that he's a viable fantasy option still coming in with 60 yards and a score last week.

Kurt Warner gets a Minnesota pass defense that allows 217 yards per game and have allowed just 12 passing TDs. Chances are high that Warner still gets his 250+ yards and 2 TDs. Larry Fitzgerald appears to be the #1 still in Arizona but Boldin could just as easly out perform him on any given week. You're obviously starting Boldin and Fitzgerald if you have them. Tim Hightower will be have to run against a tough Minnesota rush defense that allows just 73 yards per game and have only allowed 9 rushing TDs. The Vikings still have the backbone of their defensive line as of now but keep an eye on the legal actions going on there because if they are suspended this week this improves the value of Hightower.

Denver at Carolina:

This just in, Carolina can run the ball! Against a Tampa Bay team that only allowed 1 rushing TD the whole year DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart cut them up for more than 300 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs. Williams and Stewart should both be start this week against a horrible Denver team that allows 140 yards per game on the ground and have allowed 17 rushing TDs to date. Steve Smith is a must start as well against a Bronco's team that allows 232 yards per game in the air and have allowed 16 TDs this year. Delhomme is not startable at this point with the two headed beast running the ball.

Cutler has returned to the fantasy football must start list and should be able to score against the middle of the road pass defense of Carolina that got cut apart last week by Jeff Garcia. Carolina is allowing 208 yards per game in the air and have yielded 13 TDs through the air. Brandon Marshall also had a huge game last week and should have a great game this week as well.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore:

This game should be a low scoring, hard nosed, knock-down drug out fight. The two best overall defenses meet this Sunday and effectively reduce the fantasy value of everybody involved! Instead of doing analysis for this match-up I'll just list the statistics and let you decide how valuable your player is against these defenses.

Baltimore 176 ypg, 13 TDs, 22 INTs, 28 sacks
Steelers 169 ypg, 11 TDs, 16 INTs, 45 sacks

Baltimore 77 ypg, 3 TDs
Pittsburgh 73 ypg, 5 TDs

New England at Oakland:

New England is in the playoff hunt and will look to get a much needed win against a bad Raiders team. The raiders allow 159 yards per game on the ground and have given up 18 rushing TDs to date. Sammy Morris is the guy in New England but still should be used as a #2 running back at best. In the air Oakland is actually a decent team allowing just 194 yards per game and 15 passing TDs. They do not get a lot of pressure on the QB with just 25 sacks which could give Cassel time to get the ball around. Welker had 150 yards last week and is a must start as well as Randy Moss. At this point you can't view Randy Moss as a top 5 or even 10 receiver.

Oakland has nobody you want to play. Russell went out last week and is questionable for this week but this shouldn't matter as there is literally nobody on the Raiders that you are excited to start. Zach Miller has been the only startable player this year.

New York Giants at Dallas:

This is a true "must win" game for the Cowboys. After Tony Romo gave away a game that the Dallas defense had won last week he will look to make up for it. The Giants are a good defense and will make it difficult. Terrell Owens is no longer a must start and could find your bench this week against a Giants team that allows just 193 yards per game and have allowed 14 passing TDs. Marion Barber is questionable still for this week so keep your eye on the situation. If Barber is in this will lower the value of Choice considerably. Either way they both have a tough match-up. The Giants have allowed just 90 yards per game and have allowed 8 touch downs on the ground.

On the Giants side of the ball your guess is as good as mine as to whether or not the Giants will bring the heat or not. They clinched the division last week with the Cowboys loss and will likely rest some of their banged up players. If Jacobs plays he'll probably not be the main grinder. That being said the Giants may want to eliminate the Cowboys before they even make the playoffs and may bring the heat to avoid a rematch in the playoffs. Dallas' defense has been stout the last 4 weeks and the Giants don't have any MUST starts this week. Dominik Hixon and Eli Manning are both good starts but the Dallas defense makes everybody a risky start.

Cleveland at Philadelphia:

Brian Westbrook has firmly put himself back into the must start category with two monster games in a row and appears to be healthy again. Cleveland allows 149 yards per game on the ground and have allowed 13 rushing TDs. In the air they allow just 211 yards per game and but have allowed 16 passing TDs to date. Everybody on the Eagles should be started in their appropriate positions. You're not starting Jackson as a #1 but you can count on he and Kevin Curtis as solid #2 receivers.

Nobody on the Cleveland side of the ball should be in your lineup. The Eagles allow just 187 yards per game in the air and 93 on the ground. With a 3rd string QB throwing the ball to nobody except Edwards look for the entire team to struggle. If you have the Philadelphia Eagles defense you will start them!

No comments: